Dung doi den khi tui rong moi biet minh sai

"Toi khong bao gio thua, toi chi hoac la thang, hoac la hoc hoi." – Nelson Mandela. Mot cau noi nghe co ve kieu ngao, nhung thuc te, phan lon nhung nguoi guc nga deu chua bao gio chiu ngoi xuong de thuc su phan tich cai goi la "su hoc hoi" sau moi that bai. Ho chi biet cay cu va lao dau vao nhung quyet dinh thieu tinh tao tiep theo.

Dem hom qua, toi ngoi trong mot quan ca phe via he, nhin mot nguoi dan ong trung nien do guc xuong ban, mat tai met. Anh ta vua trang tay sau mot van bai do den. Toi khong hoi, nhung toi biet su dan vat ay bat nguon tu su thieu kiem soat. Trong cai thi truong khac nghiet cua nhung tro choi may rui, ranh gioi giua mot tay choi ban linh va ke nghien ngap la rat mong manh. Nhieu nguoi tim den nha cai BL555 (xem them tai: https://virgin-mobile.za.com/) voi ky vong doi doi nhanh chong, nhung quen mat rang bat ky nen tang nao cung chi la cong cu. Cong cu khong sai, sai la o cai dau khong giu duoc cai "lanh" khi con so nhay mua tren man hinh.

Cuoc song nay chang khac gi mot van cuoc khong lo. Chung ta dat cuoc thoi gian vao mot cong viec, dat cuoc long tin vao mot nguoi ban, hay don gian la dat cuoc suc khoe vao loi song hang ngay. Su khac biet nam o cho: ke khon ngoan biet luc nao nen bo bai, ke ngoc nghech lai cu co theo den cung chi vi da lo bo ra vai dong le truoc do. Hieu ung tam ly do goi la "sunk cost fallacy" – ao tuong chi phi chim. Ban cang dau, ban cang muon go. Cang muon go, ban cang mat trang.

Toi da thay nhung nguoi doi doi nho su quyet doan, nhung ho khong bao gio dung "van may" de lam chien luoc dai han. Ho hieu rang, ngay ca khi ban tin minh dang nam giu loi the, thi ban chat cua cuoc choi van la xac suat. The nen, thay vi nhin vao so tien da mat, hay nhin vao cach ban dieu tiet cam xuc. Ban co dang cau gian khong? Ban co dang de su tham lam che mo ly tri?

Dung do loi cho so phan, cung dung nguyen rua nhung noi cho phep ban thu thach van may. Khi ban dat cuoc, hay chac chan rang so tien do la con so ban san sang de roi xa ma khong khien cuoc song hien tai bi dao lon. Khi ban chien thang, hay hoc cach dung lai truoc khi su kieu ngao bien ban thanh mieng moi ngon cho chinh long tham cua minh.

Gui cho ban mot loi khuyen chan thanh: Truoc khi nap tien vao bat ky tai khoan nao, hay nap "su tinh tao" vao tri nao truoc. Dung de van bai dieu khien cuoc doi ban. Hay lam chu no, hoac tot nhat la dung ngoai neu ban van thay tay minh con dang run ray vi nhung ap luc vo hinh. Ban linh thuc su khong phai la thang bao nhieu, ma la biet ro minh dang dung o dau tren ban co nay.